EP elections 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Germany

INSA for BILD

39% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
10% Greens
10% Left
6% AfD
4% FDP
6% Others

I would guess "Others": Pirates 2%, Free Voters 1%, NPD 1%, Minor 2%

 

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Thuringia federal state of Germany

CDU 33%
Left 24%
SPD 23%
AfD 6%
Greens 6%
NPD 3%
Others (including FDP) 5%

[Diouf]

The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

EPP 212
S&D 209
ALDE 63
GUE-NGL 52
ECR 43
EFD 39
Greens/EFA 38
NI 95

VoteWatch have made an attempt to predict how the new parties will position themselves, and whether new groups will emerge: http://www.votewatch.eu/en/news.html#3944

They end up with this result based on current polls

EPP 213
S&D 209
ALDE 76
EFD 64!
GUE-NGL 54
ECR 46
EAF 39
Greens-EFA 35
NI 15

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

EPP 212
S&D 209
ALDE 63
GUE-NGL 52
ECR 43
EFD 39
Greens/EFA 38
NI 95

VoteWatch have made an attempt to predict how the new parties will position themselves, and whether new groups will emerge: http://www.votewatch.eu/en/news.html#3944

They end up with this result based on current polls

EPP 213
S&D 209
ALDE 76
EFD 64!
GUE-NGL 54
ECR 46
EAF 39
Greens-EFA 35
NI 15

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

Votewatch gives the following explanation:

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs Austria EAF
Vlaams Belan Belgium EAF
Bulgaria bez Tsenzura Bulgaria NI
Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI
Akce nespokojených občanů Czech Republic ALDE
Front national France EAF
Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
Piraten Germany GUE-NGL
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands Germany NI
Freie Wähler Germany ALDE
To Potami Greece ALDE
Chrysi Aygi Greece NI
JOBBIK Hungary NI
Independent (Nessa Childers) Ireland ALDE
Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
No sirds Latvijai Latvia NI
Partij voor de Vrijheid Netherlands EAF
Kongres Nowej Prawicy Poland EFD
Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Unión, Progreso y Democracia Spain ALDE
Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
Sverigedemokraterna Sweden EAF
Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD

I would correct:

Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI  
Could be ECR, but as HSP AS is here, it is EFD.

Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
They ruled out grouping togehther with UKIP, FN and PVV, so ECR or NI.

Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Totaly open. Maby they'll find some mavericks to form a new group, maybe they'll splitt, maybe Greens, GUE, EFD, but most likely NI.

Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
Greens or ALDE

Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
EAF

Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
ALDE

Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD
NI

List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Could be ALDE

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Bavaria (federal state of Germany)


CSU 47%
SPD 20%
Grünen 11%
AfD 6%
FDP 4% 
Free Voters 3%   
Left 3% 
Others 6% 

[Jens]

The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

I would correct:

Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI  
Could be ECR, but as HSP AS is here, it is EFD.

Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
They ruled out grouping togehther with UKIP, FN and PVV, so ECR or NI.

Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Totaly open. Maby they'll find some mavericks to form a new group, maybe they'll splitt, maybe Greens, GUE, EFD, but most likely NI.

Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
Greens or ALDE

Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
EAF

Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
ALDE

Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD
NI

List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Could be ALDE

I agree on the Estonian Greens. Would be very strange if they didn't join the Greens/EFA
Movimento 5 Stelle looks like a NI - don't really think that they will fit into Greens nor EFD
N-VA will for sure leave Greens/EFA. They only sad there because their MEP was a moderate from the old Volksunie - their new MEP's will be way to rightwing for EFA and the Greens

[Zanas]

So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

Is there the slightest chance for DLR gaining one seat? And if so, how could that happen? Even just hypthetical.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the Standard:



http://derstandard.at/1399507540381/Spannende-EU-Wahl-Drei-Grossparteien-fast-gleichauf

Likely a joke poll, the Greens are nowhere near 16% ...

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saarland (federal state of Germany)

infratest

CDU 35%
SPD 34%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

[FredLindq]

It is the Latvian party that is mentioned. Its list looks like this.

1. Andris Bērziņš (LZS)
2. Iveta Šulca (LZP)
3. Iveta Grigule (LZS)
4. Kārlis Seržants (LZP)
5. Armands Krauze (LZS)
6. Ilona Jurševska (LZS)

On a European scale, the Green Party cooperates with the European Federation of Green Parties/European Free Alliance and the Farmer's Union cooperates with the European Liberal, Democrat and Reform Party. Before the European Parliament election, 2004, ZZS announced that, if its representative was elected, he would join one of the two groups, depending on which of the two Latvian parties he belonged to. ZZS failed to gather the 5% of votes necessary to gain a seat in European Parliament and thus no ZZS member was elected.

So the first seat to ALDE, a sceond seat might go too the Grenn group.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I highly doubt Grillo would join EFD.  The Greens are a possibility.  He might also try to form his own group of non-ideological parties (UPyD from Spain might be interested?) but he will have a hard time finding parties from 7 countries.

[YL]

Two more UK polls.

YouGov: Lab 28 UKIP 25 Con 22 LD 10 Green 10
Opinium: UKIP 30 Lab 28 Con 22 LD 7 Green 5

[Zanas]

So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

Is there the slightest chance for DLR gaining one seat? And if so, how could that happen? Even just hypthetical.

Yes, the slightest chance. The only shot they got is the last seat in Île de France. With 15 seats, depending on how much each party above the 5% threshold gets, you are nearly guaranteed to get the last one if you pass the threshold, even barely.

So for DLR to get this, they would need something like a 4% result nationally, translating into a 5.01% in the IdF constituency. Had Dupont-Aignan himself been their candidate there, I would have acknowledged the possibility. But with a nobody, Dominique Jamet, the odds are against them.

So really the slightest of the slightest chance.

[SPQR]

I highly doubt Grillo would join EFD.  The Greens are a possibility.  He might also try to form his own group of non-ideological parties (UPyD from Spain might be interested?) but he will have a hard time finding parties from 7 countries.

No way M5S will join the Greens. In the last year and a half, ever since they went under the spotlight,they never talked about the environment.
It's an anti-euro and anti-EU populist movement,with scary right-wing fringes. That's it.

[EPG]

Votewatch seem to be over-classifying people to groups. For instance, there's no reason why the Democratic Unionists would join EFD, which is led by UKIP, which is allied to the TUV, the DUP's far-right splinter group. For another, if Childers gets elected (which is possible but not the most likely outcome in my opinion), she will probably not join the non-socialist ALDE. She'd be more likely to set up her own New Green party, and return to the first grouping she quit rather than the second.

[MaxQue]

UKIP and TUV aren't allies.

[EPG]

Jim Allister sat with UKIP in the EP to 2009.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two more UK polls.

YouGov: Lab 28 UKIP 25 Con 22 LD 10 Green 10
Opinium: UKIP 30 Lab 28 Con 22 LD 7 Green 5

Total crapshoot.

[MaxQue]

Jim Allister sat with UKIP in the EP to 2009.

But they are both running separately in Northern Ireland European election (and in the local elections on the same day). They splitted up at some point.

[joevsimp]

there was talk of an alliance fir the european and other elections, but it didn't happen, but as NI uses STV, we'll probably see a big transfer between them,

I'm actually looking forward to Northern Ireland's results, shame all the new parties are unionist thugh, but I'm particularly interested in where NI21's preferences come from and go

[Tender Branson]

Tonight, the big EUROVISION debate will take place (incl. Tsipras).



These are the TV channels that are showing it live:

http://www.eurovisiondebate.tv/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/FAQs_BroadcastersListVA.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The format

A 90-minute, live TV debate between the contenders to be the next president of the EU commission.

Language update

Ska Keller, Martin Schulz and Guy Verhofstadt will debate in English, while Alexis Tsipras will speak in Greek, and Jean-Claude Juncker will participate in French.

The presenter

Veteran Italian journalist, war correspondent, TV anchor, author, filmmaker and broadcasting executive, Monica Maggioni.

[doktorb]

Tonight, the big EUROVISION debate will take place (incl. Tsipras).



These are the TV channels that are showing it live:

http://www.eurovisiondebate.tv/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/FAQs_BroadcastersListVA.pdf

Oh what a shame that I am washing my hair.

[Tender Branson]

Isn't 90 minutes a bit short for 5 candidates ?

I hope they let them speak a bit this time and not cut them off after 20 or 30 seconds ...