GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Wiz in Wis]

RRH is a very conservative site and I would be skeptical of any poll the released. The polled LA-Gov and had Vitter down only 6 and he lost by more.

N = 321/ it's a special. Skepticism is warranted regardless of pollster history - and that applies to ALL the polls here.

[RI]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

[heatcharger]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

That was a statewide election. Polling of individual districts has always been pretty unreliable, even in general elections.

[RI]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

That was a statewide election. Polling of individual districts has always been pretty unreliable, even in general elections.

Yes, House polls can be individually noisy, but special election House polls aren't much more noisy than regular House polls. That's my point.

[McGovernForPrez]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

[smoltchanov]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

Yeah, but keyword seems to be substantial. Will, say, 15 seats gain, be considered a substantial gain?

[KingSweden]

House polls should always earn skepticism, especially small sample sizes in a special.

That said, RRH are a non-hack outfit and nobody should expect Ossofd to take this without a runoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

Yeah, but keyword seems to be substantial. Will, say, 15 seats gain, be considered a substantial gain?

Problem most of those midterms is the rep presidents weren't hated like Trump the best midterm comparison is Bush in '06 so based off that yes 15 is bad

[Tintrlvr]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

That was a statewide election. Polling of individual districts has always been pretty unreliable, even in general elections.

Yes, House polls can be individually noisy, but special election House polls aren't much more noisy than regular House polls. That's my point.

And polling for regular House elections is notoriously terrible, so I don't see where that gets us.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The new poll seems in line with recent ones, if on the lower end of the range.  IIRC all the others have had Ossoff in the 40-43 range, so one result of 39 certainly isn't unreasonable. 

Unless the voter models are completely off (although that's a possibility, as we saw last November), Ossoff is almost certainly NOT going to win a majority on Tuesday.  I think he'll do a bit better than the polls have shown; let's say 46% +/-1%.  But getting to 50%+1 would be a real stretch from here. 

[The Other Castro]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

[Brittain33]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

Great, so either Ossoff has dropped into the 30s or Handel is bleeding support to Gray zzzzz...

[Maxwell]

I expect a slight/moderate Ossoff drop-off and a substantial drop-off for Handel, with Moody (!!!) toward the top of the field if not THE top. Moody is the GOPer that I believe is most likely to defeat Ossoff, though most of them are likely to do so (yes, even Gray). Moody is conservative without being a Trump whipping boy, an embarrassing clown, or washed up has been.

[krazen1211]

Great poll!

[publicunofficial]

Dems getting under 40 in Georgia while coming close in Kansas and possibly Montana would at least serve to sound some alarm bells at the DCCC regarding their strategy. I would hope.

[Vosem]

Dems getting under 40 in Georgia while coming close in Kansas and possibly Montana would at least serve to sound some alarm bells at the DCCC regarding their strategy. I would hope.

Should be noted that Democrats came close in Kansas mostly off the strength of the swing in Sedgwick County (so, Wichita and its suburbs), rather than the rural areas, which did swing towards Democrats but much more mildly.

[heatcharger]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

I'd like to see the runoff matchups. I still think the Republican is going to have some trouble consolidating support since the field is so divided.

[Figueira]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

When was their last poll?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I could be wrong of course, but if Trump goes full Bush/neocon and basically abandons all of his fake populism and campaign promises, a conservative Southern "educated" suburban area would not be the kind of place where I'd expect to see a strong backlash. These people are probably quite happy with "new Trump" and Gorsuch, the airstrikes, etc.

This could explain a potential underperformance by Democrats here, especially if they do well in other special elections that aren't taking place in the South.

If Trump were to go "Generic R", places like GA-6 and TX-7 and 24 would be among the first to come back.

[The Other Castro]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

When was their last poll?

March 22-23. They also had these runoff numbers:

Ossoff 42%, Handel 41%
Ossoff 44%, Gray 42%
Ossoff 44%, Hill 45%
Ossoff 46%, Moody 43%

[publicunofficial]

Did RRH poll Trump approval within the district?

[heatcharger]

Did RRH poll Trump approval within the district?

46% Approve
46% Disapprove

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ In that case, anything less than 46% support for all democrats combined should result in the head of the DCCC being fired.

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ In that case, anything less than 46% support for all democrats combined should result in the head of the DCCC being fired.

Why?  Lots of people who disapproved of Trump still voted for him in November.  And Trump isn't on the ballot here.  It's easy for a Republican who thinks "Trump isn't a real Republican" to disapprove of him, but still like one of the many R candidates in this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because this race has been effectively nationalized. Most voters will be voting based off their feelings on Trump, and turnout will determine the results. The democrats need to find someone who can turn out their voters for off-year stuff, and fast.