Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Keep cool-idge]

It's incredibly suspicious that the accuser's lawyer won't allow the yearbook to be verified by a neutral third party.

I disagree, based on what I've learned about expert witnesses from friends in law enforcement. I doubt there is an objective way to validate conclusively the yearbook inscription; it ain't the Shroud of Turn where you can carbon-date the cotton, nor is it DNA. Surely the yearbook is actually from the 1970s. There are probably a million ways to spread doubt and uncertainty and make it a "both sides disagree" thing. Moore's campaign will certainly find experts to say it has to be false.

TV has given people false expectations that there are scientific tests of evidence that can apply everywhere. As far as this yearbook, I don't think there's much more we can do than assess with our own eyes, with circumstantial evidence, and with context.

Actually you maybe able to do DNA on the year book because if they can verify that Moore actually touched it then that’s a game changer.

[SteveRogers]

It's incredibly suspicious that the accuser's lawyer won't allow the yearbook to be verified by a neutral third party.

I disagree, based on what I've learned about expert witnesses from friends in law enforcement. I doubt there is an objective way to validate conclusively the yearbook inscription; it ain't the Shroud of Turn where you can carbon-date the cotton, nor is it DNA. Surely the yearbook is actually from the 1970s. There are probably a million ways to spread doubt and uncertainty and make it a "both sides disagree" thing. Moore's campaign will certainly find experts to say it has to be false.

TV has given people false expectations that there are scientific tests of evidence that can apply everywhere. As far as this yearbook, I don't think there's much more we can do than assess with our own eyes, with circumstantial evidence, and with context.

Actually you maybe able to do DNA on the year book because if they can verify that Moore actually touched it then that’s a game changer.

Ugh. This is why I have to explain to jurors in every single trial that CSI is not a documentary.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone know if and when we will start to see numbers for absentee ballot returns for Alabama by County/Party?

Also, will there be any early in-person voting for this election, or will it all be election day ballots plus absentee ballots?

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Holy Unifying Centrist]

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I don't think this will make much of a difference, unless Doug Jones is undergoing a massive turnout operation with this money. I don't think flooding the markets with TV ads will do that much.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone know if and when we will start to see numbers for absentee ballot returns for Alabama by County/Party?

Also, will there be any early in-person voting for this election, or will it all be election day ballots plus absentee ballots?

Alabama doesn't have early voting, and absentee voting requires an acceptable excuse, so there's not too much of that either.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I asked before and you deplorables said nothing, so I'll ask again.
Even if we assume that Beverly Young lied, what about the seven other accusers?
What about people from that era who confirm that the guy was a known creep, harassing teen girls at the mall and their schools?
Are they all part of a giant conspiracy of gays, transgender and socialists?

Here is an article that explains why many voters are having doubts about the statements of the other accusers:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/why-the-alabama-senate-race-is-shifting-in-roy-moores-favor/article/2642236

I see you are still name calling.  Don't you understand how childish that is?

[NOVA Green]

Anyone know if and when we will start to see numbers for absentee ballot returns for Alabama by County/Party?

Also, will there be any early in-person voting for this election, or will it all be election day ballots plus absentee ballots?

Alabama doesn't have early voting, and absentee voting requires an acceptable excuse, so there's not too much of that either.

TY!!!

So basically there is nothing for Atlas posters to do until 12/12 (Especially those that finish College Terms early) than just sit here and talk about the same old crap that has filled over 50 pages?

Man, was hoping we could at least have some real election results to start debating and discussing, instead of all of this drivel on the thread over the past few weeks....   

[Brittain33]

Alabama voters may not have gotten the message that Moore has already won. The latest WaPo poll has Jones up 3 with low undecideds.

I am getting that feeling I had a week before Virginia's election when everyone thought Northam had lost.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It has become quiet on this thread.

[Brittain33]

It has become quiet on this thread.

Lack of actual news + everyone focusing on the tax bill

[Brittain33]

Apologies if this was posted already, but Trump is hedging his bets about not campaigning for Moore by having a rally in Pensacola on Dec. 8, four days before the election.

The odds he doesn't ramble and say something nice about Moore and negative about Jones I'd say are close to 0.

http://www.pnj.com/story/news/2017/11/30/donald-trump-pensacola-campaign-alabama-special-election/911952001/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apologies if this was posted already, but Trump is hedging his bets about not campaigning for Moore by having a rally in Pensacola on Dec. 8, four days before the election.

The odds he doesn't ramble and say something nice about Moore and negative about Jones I'd say are close to 0.

http://www.pnj.com/story/news/2017/11/30/donald-trump-pensacola-campaign-alabama-special-election/911952001/

What a sniveling coward that man is.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Apologies if this was posted already, but Trump is hedging his bets about not campaigning for Moore by having a rally in Pensacola on Dec. 8, four days before the election.

The odds he doesn't ramble and say something nice about Moore and negative about Jones I'd say are close to 0.

http://www.pnj.com/story/news/2017/11/30/donald-trump-pensacola-campaign-alabama-special-election/911952001/

What a sniveling coward that man is.

Yep! A coward takes on the Republican and Democrat establishments and beats them.  You from your vantage point can call him correctly many things.  But I do not think coward is one of them.

[Devout Centrist]

Apologies if this was posted already, but Trump is hedging his bets about not campaigning for Moore by having a rally in Pensacola on Dec. 8, four days before the election.

The odds he doesn't ramble and say something nice about Moore and negative about Jones I'd say are close to 0.

http://www.pnj.com/story/news/2017/11/30/donald-trump-pensacola-campaign-alabama-special-election/911952001/

Damn he’s hedging his bets as much as possible

[Kamala]

So I had a dream about this election last night. It's a bit hazy but I'll write down what I remember:

There weren't any more bombshells or scandals emerging between yesterday and election night. Polling was scattered, similar to VA-Gov. Everybody was very cautious.

I'm reading tweets about turnout projections, which are staggeringly low, etc. It's blamed on the weather, overcast with predictions of heavy rain.

Then in the afternoon, which looked like evening because it was dark, there's breaking news on NBC about several incidents of white-hooded KKK rallies at polling sites in the Black Belt and Ivey was calling the National Guard to help protect voters.

Obviously atlas was saying that Jones is doomed.

Then I don't remember much in the hours that followed, but when polls closed, there were reports of long lines in Black Belt precincts and in Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville. Some tweet by some politico said that the Jones campaign spent a lot of its remaining money on buying and distributing umbrellas to people who were coming to the polls.

So now the interesting part: whoops, this was hazy. I woke up before the results were finalized, but I remember that the map on NBC had Madison, Mobile, and one of the SE Alabama counties be (non-atlas) blue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I had a dream about this election last night. It's a bit hazy but I'll write down what I remember:

There weren't any more bombshells or scandals emerging between yesterday and election night. Polling was scattered, similar to VA-Gov. Everybody was very cautious.

I'm reading tweets about turnout projections, which are staggeringly low, etc. It's blamed on the weather, overcast with predictions of heavy rain.

Then in the afternoon, which looked like evening because it was dark, there's breaking news on NBC about several incidents of white-hooded KKK rallies at polling sites in the Black Belt and Ivey was calling the National Guard to help protect voters.

Obviously atlas was saying that Jones is doomed.

Then I don't remember much in the hours that followed, but when polls closed, there were reports of long lines in Black Belt precincts and in Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville. Some tweet by some politico said that the Jones campaign spent a lot of its remaining money on buying and distributing umbrellas to people who were coming to the polls.

So now the interesting part: whoops, this was hazy. I woke up before the results were finalized, but I remember that the map on NBC had Madison, Mobile, and one of the SE Alabama counties be (non-atlas) blue.

Try to pick it up from there tonight, and let us know how it turns out.

[ursulahx]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

[ursulahx]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

Ah, thank you. Was hoping for 1,000+, which would have given me more confidence. Still, it’s a data point and therefore worth something.

I still say Moore by 5.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

Ah, thank you. Was hoping for 1,000+, which would have given me more confidence. Still, it’s a data point and therefore worth something.

I still say Moore by 5.

Like most special elections, pollsters just aren't sure who the hell is going to turn out. The difference between most of these polls is who they poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What’s the sample size on the WaPo poll?

739 likely voters.

Ah, thank you. Was hoping for 1,000+, which would have given me more confidence. Still, it’s a data point and therefore worth something.

I still say Moore by 5.

Bigger samples are always better, but increasing sample size from 739 to 1000 would only decrease MoE from 3.6% to 3.1%.  As others have pointed out, the difficulty with polling this election is the turnout model.  Off-year and special elections are always tricky to model, and the crazy circumstances in this one make it exceptionally tough.

[IceSpear]

Alabama voters may not have gotten the message that Moore has already won. The latest WaPo poll has Jones up 3 with low undecideds.

I am getting that feeling I had a week before Virginia's election when everyone thought Northam had lost.

Nobody thought that besides a few Atlas concern trolls and bloviating media pundits.

[Cactus Jack]

So I had a dream about this election last night. It's a bit hazy but I'll write down what I remember:

There weren't any more bombshells or scandals emerging between yesterday and election night. Polling was scattered, similar to VA-Gov. Everybody was very cautious.

I'm reading tweets about turnout projections, which are staggeringly low, etc. It's blamed on the weather, overcast with predictions of heavy rain.

Then in the afternoon, which looked like evening because it was dark, there's breaking news on NBC about several incidents of white-hooded KKK rallies at polling sites in the Black Belt and Ivey was calling the National Guard to help protect voters.

Obviously atlas was saying that Jones is doomed.

Then I don't remember much in the hours that followed, but when polls closed, there were reports of long lines in Black Belt precincts and in Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville. Some tweet by some politico said that the Jones campaign spent a lot of its remaining money on buying and distributing umbrellas to people who were coming to the polls.

So now the interesting part: whoops, this was hazy. I woke up before the results were finalized, but I remember that the map on NBC had Madison, Mobile, and one of the SE Alabama counties be (non-atlas) blue.

Let's hope this turns out to be a corny Stephen King-style premonition.

[Pericles]

The idea that Trump will swing it to Moore is laughable. He couldn't even get Republican primary voters in Alabama to obey him-how can you expect him to get a less pro-Trump to vote for a pedophile?! This guy is a total choker and loser, I look forward to Senator Doug Jones making his presidency even harder.