EP elections 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.

A weak EU is better for the USA.

A weakened EU-philia would be better for Europe.

[MaxQue]

Quite wierdly, PVV MEP Laurence Strassen is ruuning in South-East England for a fringe eurosception party.

[You kip if you want to...]

Quite wierdly, PVV MEP Laurence Strassen is ruuning in South-East England for a fringe eurosception party.

Bloody immigrants comin' over here, stealin' our jobs.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.

If it's tied to local standards of living, then it's not really a pan-European minimum wage.  To make it pan-European, all countries in the Eurozone at least should have the same minimum wage.

Also, to answer your question about why many Americans like Farage, well his rhetoric is rather moderate compared to what some members of the U.S. House of Representatives say on a daily basis.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Good news from Italy for Marine Le Pen. Her italian Partner FdI-AN jumps above the 4% and could now gain 3 seats. Le Pens other optional partner LN is at 7% (the survey is a bit exceptionally, in other polls they are at 5%) and could gain 5 seats. M5S is at a new record high with 28%!

http://scenaripolitici.com/2014/04/sondaggio-scenaripolitici-19-aprile-2014-elezioni-europee.html




There is also a new seat projection from Scenari Politici for the EP:



For the EFD (mainly UKIP, Finns, DPP) it looks very uncertain to continue as a group. They currently have no safe deputies from the required 7 countries. It will be interesting to see how the different Euro-skeptic Conservatives and right-wing parties will be able to get together in the already existing and/or new groups.

[Tender Branson]

Green Party posters are out:



"For a life before the Schnitzel. Against the power of the agriculture companies. For our bio-agriculture."



"Better to save people, instead of banks. For solidarity and humanity."



"For bent cucumbers - against shady deals/business. Economy also works without greed."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

Well, they got 10,2% in 2009, so why "Oh God"? And as i said, most polls have them about 5-5,5%. By now, the results of this survey with 7% for LN and above 4% for Melonis FdI-AN are exeptional. Let us wait and see whether solidifies. The more intresting fact is, that LN, FdI and M5S are strongly and FI and Tsipras to a certain degree against the Euro, which means that combined more than 57% of the Italians will vote against the Euro.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd imagine 57% of Italians being "anti Euro" is surprisingly low.

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

Well, they got 10,2% in 2009, so why "Oh God"? And as i said, most polls have them about 5-5,5%. By now, the results of this survey with 7% for LN and above 4% for Melonis FdI-AN are exeptional. Let us wait and see whether solidifies. The more intresting fact is, that LN, FdI and M5S are strongly and FI and Tsipras to a certain degree against the Euro, which means that combined more than 57% of the Italians will vote against the Euro.

Tsipras himself is not against the Euro at all.  He's actually a federalist that wants full integration and is in favor of eurobonds.  I'm not sure if SEL and the other parties in the alliance share that opinion (someone more familiar with Italian politics could answer that)

[Zanas]

Edit: Pollwatch gives DLR 1 Seat http://www.electio2014.eu/de/pollsandscenarios/polls#country scroll down and click on France.

Yeah they just compile national polls and don't know how to dispatch them into actual constituency level results at all. DLR is not gaining a seat unless they somehow manage to get above 5% in Île de France, which is not going to happen.

[Tender Branson]

The party ranking on the Austrian ballot will look like this:

  1 - ÖVP
  2 - SPÖ
  3 - "EMPTY" (because Hans-Peter Martin is not running anymore)
  4 - FPÖ
  5 - Greens
  6 - BZÖ
  7 - NEOS
  8 - REKOS
  9 - Europa Anders
10 - EU-STOP

...

I wonder how many people will actually "vote" for "EMPTY" ...

(Well, actually they cannot vote for "EMPTY" because there's no circle in the column to make a cross. So, every "vote" in the column with the name "EMPTY" will be recorded as an invalid vote. But the "vote" still counts for turnout.)

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Denmark

Liberals 24.5 % 4 seats
DF 24.0 % 3
Social Democrats 22.8 % 4
People's movement against the EU 7.3 % 1
Social Liberals 6.9 % 1
SF 5.7 % 0
Conservatives 5.5 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.3 % 0

[Tender Branson]

2nd poster wave from the ÖVP:



"A better Europe creates jobs through growth."
"That's what I work for. Beyond party barriers (or: reaching across the aisle)."
"Othmar Karas - Vice President of the European Parliament."

(notice that the ÖVP-logo is once again missing in this one ...)



"ÖVP - For a better Europe."
"A better Europe: Creates work through Growth. Guarantees Peace. Secures the Future of the Youth."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega at 7%. Oh God.

Well, they got 10,2% in 2009, so why "Oh God"? And as i said, most polls have them about 5-5,5%. By now, the results of this survey with 7% for LN and above 4% for Melonis FdI-AN are exeptional. Let us wait and see whether solidifies. The more intresting fact is, that LN, FdI and M5S are strongly and FI and Tsipras to a certain degree against the Euro, which means that combined more than 57% of the Italians will vote against the Euro.

Tsipras certainly isn't anti-Euro. Neither is M5S, really. And FI's stance is merely tactical and not even really anti-Euro either. Sorry to bust your fantasy, but that 57% is complete bullsh*t.

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

[MaxQue]

So, barring some big turn around, will this be the first election since 1994 that the center-right coalition isn't in the plurality?

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.
[/quote]

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.

[EPG]

Poster day in Ireland today; note that unlike some countries, the posters are neither all orange nor explaining party policies.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/11998_23_04_14_2_04_46.jpeg
Fitzpatrick (FF/ALDE) and council candidates (Lab, FF, Independent)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/11998_23_04_14_2_04_55.jpeg
Smith (PBPA) and Fitzpatrick (FF/ALDE)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/11998_23_04_14_2_04_34.jpeg
Hayes (FG/EPP)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/11998_23_04_14_2_04_20.jpeg
Costello (Lab/S&D) and council candidates (Lab, 'Gregory' Independent)

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.
[/quote]

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
[/quote]

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
[/quote]

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
[/quote]

Wait what? The EPP won a plurality,  and EPP+ALDE+ID add to form a majority...

[You kip if you want to...]

Let's not forget that the EPP and the Socialists basically ran the place like a grand coalition until like 10 years ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
[/quote]

Wait what? The EPP won a plurality,  and EPP+ALDE+ID add to form a majority...
[/quote]

This is not how coalitions work in Italy. Some parties in the left alliance were affiliated with ALDE or even EPP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

[You kip if you want to...]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

[Zinneke]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

N-VA used to be a sub-group of CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, light nationalists) and have always had a conservative-liberal backbone to their nationalism (There used to be a left-wing nationalist party called Spirit but they're in Groen now). When they split from CD&V, the latter got very cross and managed to get N-VA kicked out of the EPP.

Thing is N-VA had only one MEP at the time anyway and she was actually to the left of the party and on good terms with the Belgian Greens and more importantly wasn't a hardcore Flemish nationalist (she's from Limburg). I talked to an ecolo MEP and he said it was a potential PR disaster (a Walloon party sitting in the same group as a Flemish nationalist party) but they didn't want her in the non-inscrits because she was europhile, limburgish and did a lot of good work.

Anyway she is no longer MEP as she was elected as mayor of Bilzen and now N-VA are set to get more seats with a way more right-wing list than the last time out (since De Wever is riding on the tide of right-wing populism). They look set to join the ECR although that could get embarrassing for Cameron with the Scotland debate. Personally, I think they should just rejoin the EPP because they are not eurosceptic (yet).

I think Ecolo and the way that other Walloon parties have kept questioning them as to why they sit with Flemish nationalists both in EP and in federal government opposition is the realpolitik nature of what just happened. This is what happens in campaigning time I guess...