Election predictions for the 2016 General Election are now open (U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and Governor). To help with picking winners, the polling database for the 2016 General Elections is also active. In 2012, the Atlas predictions for U.S. President had 81 users correctly call all 51 state-wide contests and all five congressional districts. The 2014 predictions were a bit tougher with nine users calling all states for U.S. Senate. Nobody called all 36 contests for Governor, given surprises in Maryland, Kansas, and Illinois. Good luck in this round!
The Pennsylvania 2012 presidential election results map by Municipality (City, Borough, Township) is now complete. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won a total of 2,031 municipalities while Barack Obama and Joe Biden won in 524 (11 were ties). This is a pickup for the Republican ticket vs. 2008, of 234 municipalities. Similar to many other states, the municipalities with the largest number of votes cast voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning all of the top ten (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown, Upper Darby, Erie, Lower Merion, Abington, Haverford, Scranton, and Millcreek) with a net margin of 656,882 votes. The bulk of the margin votes are from the city of Philadelphia where Obama received 85.2% of the vote, resulting in a margin of 492,339 votes. Romney’s largest margin in any municipality is 6,714 votes in Hampfield Township in Westmoreland County. The total aggregated margin in all 2,031 municipalities won by Romney is 696,033, slightly more than the Obama margin in the ten municipalities listed above. Full details, including party and swing maps can be viewed on the Pennsylvania 2012 Town page. The forum topic is located here.
For members, there are now available county township maps on the individual county results pages. In addition, the same maps and data are now available for President in the general elections of 2000, 2004, and 2008.
The 2012 Presidential Election Results map for Minnesota by county subdivision (City, Township, UT) is now complete. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won a total of 1,864 cities and townships while Barack Obama and Joe Biden won in 825 (37 were ties). This is a pickup for the Republican ticket vs. 2008, of 200 cities and towns. Similar to many other states, the municipalities with the largest populations voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning nine of the top ten (Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester, Bloomington, Duluth, Plymouth, Eagan, Brooklyn Park, and Woodbury; Romney won Maple Grove) with a net margin of 258,206 votes. The state-wide margin of all 2,726 cities and townships is Democratic +225,942 votes. In the city of Minneapolis alone, Obama/Biden won 80.3% to 16.6%, a margin of 136,920 votes. Full details can be viewed on the Minnesota 2012 Town page. The forum topic is located here.
There exists a significant vote error in the 2004 general election result for United States Senate in Shawnee County, KS as published in the 2004 November 2nd General Election Official Results by County posted by the Kansas Secretary of State. The totals are shown in the table below:
The total votes counted in the above table is 54,530 and is significantly lower than the 81,577 votes counted for President, 80,582 votes counted for U.S. House of Representatives, and 82,784 ballots cast. The drop-off is 33% relative to the Presidential Vote. The reason for this drop-off is because the figures for U.S. Senate as published by the Kansas Secretary of State are incorrect. The vote totals as published in the Statement of Votes Cast by the Shawnee County Election Office show the correct figures, repeated below:
The total error is 25,110 votes. The missing votes are actually very similar percentage wise to the counted votes and do not impact the results of the contest. The Atlas database has been updated with these corrected results and can be seen here:
The 2015 Gubernatorial predictions for the general election to be held on November 3, 2015 are now active. Three states hold elections for their top executive office in 2015, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Add your prognostication here.
A very cool set of U.S. Presidents Bicycle Playing Cards is being developed through a KickStarter campaign. From the developer:
“The US Presidents deck has been in production for many months. Each card has been hand drawn to feature the most intricate details. This deck features all 44 presidents and 4 popular first ladies as queens. Although we can debate which presidents should have been on the court cards, we have done much research before making our choices. We chose based on popularity and the s influence on our s history. The remaining presidents are uniquely featured on the number cards.
The US President Deck was not only designed to appeal to the card collector audience, but also as a fully playable deck of cards. It will be hard not to reflect on our great s history and the accomplishments of our past leaders while playing with these cards.
We are launching this deck in February in honor of s Day (February 16th) here in the United States. Pick up a few packs to show your patriotism, and few extra to play with and admire. Our goal is to have these in your hands by Independence Day.”
The data sets for US House of Representative, US Senate, and Governor have been updated to version 1.0 and are available on the store page. Updates are, of course, free for those whom have already purchased these files. The update may be downloaded from your myatlas page. This update includes:
- Amended official results plus write-in votes in West Virginia
- New data from Texas to correct the absence of Bailey County, and error in Kinney County
- Corrected the error in the official results for Johnson County, Indiana
There exists a 1,000 vote data error in the official and final election results for Indiana United States Representative District 9 as published by the Indiana Secretary of State. The error is in the vote total for Libertarian candidate Ralph Mike Frey in Johnson County. The total tabulated by the Indiana Secretary of State of 1,930 votes is actually only 930 votes as confirmed by the Johnson County Clerk. The Johnson County report, General Election November 4, 2014 Summary Report, is final and official and deemed the accurate count. The 2014 U.S. House dataset has been updated with the correction.
The data tables on the Atlas have been upgraded to provide more interactive features, including immediate multi-column sort, column filters, map highlights, and more. An interactive example of the 2012 Gubernatorial Election result is shown below:
- Sort the table on a given column directly by clicking the arrows in the header row cell (one click, sorts ascending, two clicks sorts descending, third click removes the sort).
- Sort on multiple columns by holding down shift key when clicking on the header sort cell.
- Mouse over on a row highlights the row and the corresponding shape boundary on the map.
- Mouse over on a map highlights the shape boundary and the corresponding row in the table
- Click on the mini map at left of each row goes to the summary data page with candidate result details and maps.
- Click on the name at left of each row goes to the next-level down data table
The 2014 General Election official gubernatorial results published by the Iowa Secretary of State include a significant error in Union County, where 2,224 votes were not included in the statewide tally (52% of the total votes in Union County). Published results from the Union County Auditor show the correct figures. The table below compares the two:
Union County, IA 2014 General Election Result for Governor
|Candidate||IA SoS Result||Union County Result||Difference|
|Terry Bradstad (R)||1,388||2,690||-1,302|
|Jack Hatch (D)||560||1,407||-847|
|Lee Deakins Hieb (L)||68||105||-37|
Interestingly, other statewide offices are correct, only the race for Governor is in error. The corrected data have been updated in the Atlas database (Union County Gubernatorial Result page).