Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots

Warrick County, IN

Warrick County, IN

The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published.  Looking at the data, a comparison of the ballots cast in 2008 and 2012 show an overall decline in total ballots cast of 4,211 (29,195 ballots were cast in 2008 vs 24,984 cast in 2012 – a decline of 14%).  This compares with a 4.6% decline in overall turnout state-wide.  More strikingly, the total number of absentee ballots dropped from 10,372 to 1,981 or 81%!  Another anomaly shows that the number of machine ballots increased to 22,999 from 18,823, an increase of 4,176 votes (22% increase).  These data compare with the county voter registration increase of 3,367 voters (+7.2%), causing the overall turnout to fall from 62.5% to 49.9%.  The table below summarizes the data:

Ballots
2008
2012
Change
Machine18,82322,9994,176+22.2%
Absentee10,3721,981-8,391-80.9%
Total29,19524,984-4,211-14.4%
Reg Voters46,71850,0853,367+7.2%
Turnout62.5%49.9%-12.6%

The turnout of 49.9% voter turnout ranks Warrick fourth from the bottom (89th place), just ahead of Clinton, Switzerland, and Scott.  In 2008, Warrick was right in the middle of the pack (40th place). Below is a chart that shows the Warrick County normalized voter turnout from 1980 to 2012 (vs. Registered Voters). This is calculated by subtracting the statewide voter turnout from the voter turnout in Warrick County.

Warrick County, IN Normalized Turnout

The chart highlights the significant decline in normalized turnout for 2012, well outside the normal variable range for the county, pointing to a high probability of an error. Thus far, the Warrick County Clerk has not published an update to the official county vote results for the 2012 General Election.  The Atlas will be updated when this occurs.  Thanks to Jeff Singer for the tip.

New Jersey 2013 Governor by Municipality

New Jersey 2013 General Election Gubernatorial Map by Municipality

New Jersey 2013 General Election Gubernatorial Map by Municipality

The municipality map for the 2013 race for Governor in New Jersey is complete and shown at right.  In this solid Republican win for incumbent Governor Chris Christie, he carried 503 municipalities vs. only 61 won by Democratic challenger Barbara Buono.  This is a significant improvement over Christie’s election in 2009 vs. John Corzine, where he won 413 municipalities to Corzine’s 152 (an overall net pickup of 90 for Christie).  Buono carried the largest two municipalities of Newark and Jersey City, but only one other (Patterson) in the top 29 municipalities ranked by total votes cast.  Buono’s strongest municipality with over 1,000 votes cast was in East Orange (Essex County) where she won 87.6% to 11.3% (a margin of 8,201 votes).  Similarly, Christie’s strongest municipality with greater than 1,000 votes cast was in Colts Neck (Monmouth County) ,  where he won 83.4% to 15.1% (a margin of 2,152 votes).  The table below summarizes the contest data:

 
Gubernatorial Candidate
Lt.Gubernatorial
Candidate
Political Party
Popular Vote
%
BlueChris ChristieKimberly GuadagnoRepublican1,278,93260.24%
RedBarbara BuonoMilly SilvaDemocratic809,97838.15%
colorKenneth KaplanBrenda BellLibertarian12,1550.57%
colorSteven WelzerPatricia AlessandriniGreen8,2950.39%
colorOthers--13,6810.64%

Buono’s strength was limited to the urban centers surrounding Camden, Trenton, and Newark, while Christie was strong everywhere else – especially in Ocean County and the northwestern portions of the state. Full detailed maps can be viewed on the Atlas page.  Forum discussion on this contest is located in this thread.

Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Map by Municipality

Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Election Result Map by Municipality

Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Election Result Map by Municipality

At right is the Wisconsin 2002 General Election Result map for Governor by municipality.  This contest was between incumbent Republican Governor Scott McCallum (whom assumed office when Governor Tommy Thompson resigned to become the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in January of 2001), the Democratic candidate Attorney General Jim Doyle, the Libertarian Mayor of Tomah Ed Thompson (the younger brother of former Governor Tommy Thompson), the Green party candidate Jim Young, and several other minor party candidates.  The statewide results of the election are summarized in the table below (full statewide results available  here):

Wisconsin 2002 General Election Result for Governor

 
Gubernatorial
Candidate
Lt. Gubernatorial Candidate
Political Party
Popular Vote
%
James DoyleBarbara LawtonDemocratic800,51545.09%
Scott McCallumMargaret FarrowRepublican734,77941.39%
A. Ed ThompsonMartin ReynoldsLibertarian185,45510.45%
James YoungJeff PetersonWI Green44,1112.48%
Others--10,4890.59%

The results show an even split in the number of municipalities carried by Republican Scott McCallum and Democrat James Doyle.  Doyle won 896 municipalities, with strong showing in the City of Milwaukee, Dane County through the central part of the state and in the Northwest counties of Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland.   Scott McCallum won in 905 municipalities, showing strength in the east of the state, from the Milwaukee western suburbs, north and east through the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands.  Libertarian Candidate Ed Thompson won 72 municipalities, mostly centered around his home City of Tomah (where he won Monroe County as well as neighboring Juneau County).  The overall margin of victory for James Doyle was 65,736 votes – fewer than his 93,126 vote margin in just two municipalities – Milwaukee, where he won 65.8% to 26.4% over his Republican Challenger, a margin of 55,420 votes and in Madison, where he won 62.8% to 18.8% (with 10.5% for Ed Thompson), a margin of 37,706 votes.

The candidates’ best counties with more than 1,000 votes are

  • Doyle: Superior (Douglas County) with 68.2% to 23.4% for McCallum and 4.5% for Thompson
  • McCallum: Oostburg (Sheboygan County) with 75.9% to 24.14% for Doyle and 5.15% for Thompson
  • Thompson: Tomah (Monroe County) with 55.8% to 22.4% for Doyle and 20.4% for McCallum

More information and maps are available on the Atlas town map page for the 2002 Gubernatorial Results – Wisconsin.  Atlas Forum topic on this result is located here.

Virginia 2013 Gubernatorial Swing Map

Virginia Swing Map

Virginia 2013 Gubernatorial Swing Map

The margin swing in the 2013 Virginia Governor’s race relative to the 2009 election was nearly 20% towards the Democrats.  The 2013 result was Democrat Terry McAuliffe over Republican Ken Cuccinelli by 2.6% (47.8%-45.2%). In the 2009 contest, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17.3% (58.6%-41.3%).  As shown by the map, most of the counties and cities in the state swung Democratic.  A dozen counties in the Appalachian region bordering West Virginia plus Patrick County swung Republican.  Most of these had relatively modest Republican swings.  An exception to this, however, are three adjacent counties in the northwest portion of the state: Alleghany, Bath, and Highland along with Covington City (which lies wholly within Alleghany County).  These three counties plus city exhibited swing percentages that significantly bucked the statewide swing, recording vote margins that surged Republican by 31%, 51%, 21%, and 26% respectively.  Bath County in particular, with a Republican swing percentage of 51% makes for a state-level trend move of 71% (51% Republican swing in the county plus 20% Democratic swing statewide).

Virginia 2013 Governor - Margin Swing

County
Margin 2009
Margin 2013
Margin Swing
Bath CountyD+27%R+24%R+51%
Allegheny CountyD+23%R+9%R+31%
Covington CityD+32%D+6%R+26%
Highland CountyR+10%R+31%R+21%
StatewideR+17%D+3%D+20%

While often such outlying data can suggest an error in the tally, this result is simply a matter of the area voting for favorite son Creigh Deeds in 2009 and returning to the regional voting pattern in 2013.  Creigh Deeds is from Bath County and represented the 25th district in the Virginia Senate (In 2009, Bath County, Allegheny County, and Covington City were all within the 25th district).  These counties also have very small populations (in 2013, Highland County had only 903 total votes counted, Bath County had 1,213, Allegheny County had 4,136, and Covington City had 1,275).  The full swing table (member feature) can be viewed here.

New CSV Download for Election Data Spreadsheets

Purchased spreadsheet files from the Dave Leip’s Election Atlas store now include a new option to download county-level comma-separated value (csv) files that include the FIPS codes, county names, total vote, and vote data from each party/candidate – for the entire nation in one text-based file.  These new files are currently available by county for all general election vote results data sets for U.S. Senate, U.S. Representative, Governor.  The csv files are also available for general elections for President back to 1936.  The csv and Excel versions of any purchased files may be downloaded on your myatlas page.

New Jersey 2013 Official Gubernatorial Results

The 2013 New Jersey General Election Gubernatorial Results are now official – posted by the New Jersey Division of Elections in the document Official List Candidates for Governor For General Election 11/05/2013 Election on December 4, 2013.  The final results are Republican Chris Christie 1,278,932 (60.2%), Democrat Barbara Buono 809,978 (38.2%), Libertarian Kenneth R. Kaplan 12,155 (0.57%), Green Party candidate Steven Welzer 8,295 (0.4%) and four other minor party candidates with a combined total of 11,506 votes (0.54%).  The margin of victory is 466,714 votes (22.2%).  The Election Atlas also includes in its tally 2,175 write-in votes collected from individual county election reports that are not included in the “Official List” document.

Overall, the result is a solid Republican win for the incumbent in a heavily Democratic state.  The last time a Republican won the race for Governor in New Jersey by such a large margin was by Thomas H. Kean in 1985.  In 2013, Christie won all but two counties (falling short in Essex and Gloucester) – picking up six more counties relative to his win in 2009 on the back of an 18.6% swing statewide.  His strongest showing was in Ocean County (75.7%) and had his largest swing in Hudson County (32.3%) although still coming up short of winning the county by 11.1%.  The total votes counted in 2013 are 2,106,377 – a significant drop from 2009, where 2,425,441 votes were tallied (a drop of 319,064). Christie received 95,208 more votes vs. his run in 2009 while Buono received 284,792 fewer votes in 2013 than Jon S. Corzine did on the Democratic ticket in 2009. Full results are available for exploration here.

New Republic Article on Maine 2012

The New Republic has published an article titled “The Mysterious Town That Voted For Ron Paul” based on the Election Atlas Maine statewide township map of the 2012 General Election results for President (it links to this weblog post).  The Atlas has a weblog entry on this very topic published back on June 28, 2013.  The New Republic article expresses some concern on the validity of the result based on the lack of lack of existing modern information about Concord Unorganized Township on the web and the absence of election results from Concord UT in recent elections.  As for the latter concern, there is recent evidence of consistent results reported from Concord UT.  In addition to the three votes cast for President in 2012 from (all write-ins for Ron Paul), there are also three votes cast for U.S. SenateU.S. House of Representatives District 2State Senate District 26, and State Representative District 88.  Furthermore, while 2012 was the first modern year that Maine published Presidential Election results separately for Concord UT, the Maine 2010 General Election results as published by the Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions also include three votes for Governor from Concord UT (two for Republican Paul LePage and one for Independent Eliot Cutler) as well as three votes each for U.S. Representative, State Senator, and State Representative.  Another mention of Concord UT separately is a voter registration report from November of 2006 that includes five registered voters (four Unenrolled and one Republican).  Earlier reports of election results mention that Concord UT results are included with Solon Township (example: General Election Tabulations November 2, 2004).

Elections Administered by Millinocket

Elections Administered by Millinocket

A number of the gray-shaded towns in the Maine statewide township map have residents, but not governments that administer elections.  Rather, larger surrounding townships administer elections in the unorganized townships and include these votes in their tallies.  One example is that of Millinocket (dark green in map at right), where the town administers elections in Penobscot Unorganized Townships 3 and 4, Long A UT, Cedar Lake UT, T1 R9 WELS UT, and T1 R8 WELS UT (all in light green).  Sometimes, the election results or voter registration figures for these outlying unorganized townships are tallied separately, sometimes they are added to the votes cast within the administering township, and sometimes they are reported as an aggregate separate from the administering township.  Results vary from year to year.

Updated 2012 Results in Saguache County, CO

Saguache County, CO

Saguache County, CO

The Colorado Office of the Secretary of State publishes a biennial report of official election results for the several elections held in the preceding two years.  Often the results presented within this abstract differ from the on-line reports published on the agency website shortly after the election. The 2012 Abstract of Votes Cast has only small deviations in the votes for Saguache County relative to the results published in the January 2012 on-line report.  The differences are Barack Obama (D) +1, Roseanne Barr (P&F) +2, Anderson (Jus) -2, Tittle (WTP) +1, Miller (ATP) -1. The Atlas database has been updated with this minor change.  Full results of the Colorado 2012 General Election Results for President are available on the Atlas here.

Virginia 2013 Gubernatorial Results

The 2013 General Election results for Governor are now official. The certified results from the Virginia State Board of Elections are Terry McAuliffe (D) with 1,069,789 (47.75%), Ken Cuccinelli II (R) with 1,013,354 (45.23%), Robert Sarvis (L) with 146,084 (6.52%), and 11,087 write-in votes (0.49%).  This is a Democratic pickup resulting from a popular vote swing of almost 20% relative to the 2009 Gubernatorial Election.  Cuccinelli’s best county was Scott (75.6%) and best city was Poquoson (67.7%) – he also carried the populous Virginia Beach City with 47.6%.  McAuliff’s best county was Charles City County with 61.3% and best city was Petersburg with 77.8%.  McAuliffe’s overall margin of 56,435 votes is less than his margin in the single county of Fairfax, where he won 58.4% to 36.2% (a 68,065 vote margin).  Robert Sarvis had his best showing in Alleghany County (11.8%) and the city of Covington (12.6%).

Atlas adds 8,510 Election 2000 Votes for President

Upon a detailed review of all official county election publications for the state of New York 2000 General Election results for President, the Atlas database has been updated with 8,510 more votes not included in the New York State Board of Elections 2000 General Election certified results.  Overall, the atlas results in New York include 44 corrections to the certified results by county for President.  This database update replaces the official certified vote counts in three counties with those published in the following documents: Official Canvass and Statement of Votes Cast, published by the Nassau County Board of Elections (732 more votes than reported in the statewide certified results) and the City of New York Statement and Return of the Votes for the Office of President and Vice President of the United States (corrections in Kings and New York Counties), published by the New York City Board of Elections on February 21, 2001 (7,778 more votes than reported in the statewide certified results).  Given that this update is from heavily democratic counties, the net result of these corrections is an increase in the vote margin for Al Gore over George W. Bush of 3,582 votes (bringing the total popular vote margin to 547,398 votes).